In the medium term, technical analysts and traders believe Bitcoin (BTC) is headed for an extended uptrend. For BTC to reach for a new all-time high, traders pinpoint $13,000 as the main resistance level.
In the past two years and a half, Bitcoin surpassed $13,000 only once in July 2019. The price of BTC briefly wicked to $13,970, but eventually dropped below $10,000 within a month that followed.
Traders say that BTC reaching $13,000 and staying above it is critical for a major bull run for thee reasons.
The three factors are the July 2019 top, the historical relevance of the $13,000 support, and the lacking resistance between $13,000 and $20,000.
The daily Bitcoin chart. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Which Fundamental Catalysts Could Push Bitcoin Above $13,000?
Prominent investors in the traditional finance market, including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, also emphasized the importance of $13,000.
On August 7, on the ITK with Cathie Wood podcast, Wood explained:
“That $13,000 is important because if we were to get through that, then in technical terms, there would be very little resistance and we would probably be on our way back to the peaks we saw in late 2017 — so, around $20,000. Now, we’re not sure if that is going to happen. We could stay in a new trading range, just at a little bit of a higher level than the recent six to 10.”
In the short to medium term, there are two key levels preventing BTC from $13,000: $11,200 and $12,500. Bitcoin rejected from both levels violently when it neared them.
The hurdle in the foreseeable future, in a technical sense, is to retest $11,200 and then $12,500.
There are numerous catalysts that could buoy the sentiment around Bitcoin enough to trigger an uptrend above $11,200.
First, the institutional demand for Bitcoin is rising rapidly. After MicroStrategy’s $425 million BTC purchase, the $81 billion payments conglomerate Square purchased $50 million in BTC.
Second, Bitcoin has consolidated below $11,000 for a prolonged period. There is significant pressure in BTC that could cause a massive price movement. The realized volatility of BTC has been hovering at 20%, which historically only happened seven times.
Trader Says Breach $13k and Record High is Likely
According to the pseudonymous Bitcoin trader “Salsa Tekila,” a breach above $13,000 is a clear path towards a new high.
“IMO $13’000 is the most important $BTC macro level. 1) Rejected 2018, pulled back to 3k. 2) Rejected 2019 before flashcrash to 3k. 3) Tested once in 2020 since price recovery. Push and hold through for a while (not just a fence) would make me believe in ATH. A man can dream,” he said.
In the near term, the roadblock is whether BTC has enough firepower to push through the $11,200 resistance area. Long-time bulls are counting on strengthening fundamentals, such as hashrate and rising address activity, as factors for a bigger rally.
