Bitcoin Options Traders Flip Short as Fears of a Post-Halving Selloff Mount
Bitcoin2020/05/10 03:00 by Cole Petersen
Bitcoin’s rally has shown some slight signs of slowing as it struggles to gain a solid foothold within the $10,000 region. The cryptocurrency is now consolidating as buyers attempt to gain greater support.
It does appear that options traders are overwhelmingly beginning to flip short on the benchmark cryptocurrency – a sign that they are anticipating it to see further downside in the mid-term.
The reason why they are widely increasing their exposure to put positions likely stems from the historical precedent of the $10,000 region.
In the time following BTC’s crash in late-2017, the cryptocurrency has historically seen some of its largest declines in the months following its attempts to stabilize within the five-figure price region.
Bitcoin Options Traders Seem to Think the Rally is Losing Steam
Bitcoin’s intense rally brought it all the way up to highs of $10,100 before it began stalling. The subsequent decline led it to lows of $9,500 – from which point it has been able to climb slightly higher.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading down just over 2% at its current price of $9,750.
It does appear that it has now entered a consolidation phase as it struggles to break above the heavy selling pressure laced throughout the lower $10,000 region.
Assuming that this consolidation persists, and bulls are unable to make any meaningful progress towards pushing the crypto higher, it could mean that a correction is imminent.
Options traders seem to concur with this possibility, as data shows that the put to call ratio has been climbing greatly in recent times. This signals that more traders are forecasting that Bitcoin will be trading lower than where it is currently in the mid-term.
Data from research platform Skew elucidates this trend:
“The bitcoin put / call ratio is rising rapidly,” they explained, further adding that “yesterday the four largest contract increases in open interest were puts.”
Image Courtesy of Skew
Historical Precedent Shows That Rejections at $10,000 Have Dire Consequences
In the time following Bitcoin’s late-2017 crash from highs of $20,000, the five-figure price region has been an important psychological price level for investors.
This is leading analysts to note that the probability of a correction here is quite high.
“If you’re new and feel like you missed the move to 10k relax. Probabilities say you’ll probably get to buy BTC in the low to mid 8k’s with a little patience. In 2017 we had 5-6 pullbacks of 30% or more (if I recall)… Take this time to learn,” one prominent analyst advised.
Jack Purdy – a researcher at Messari – also spoke about this from a data-perspective, saying:
“The last three times BTC went past $10,000 it was back under within 90-days.”
Image Courtesy of Messari
If this trend replicates itself, Bitcoin could be in for a correction.
Featured image from Unplash.
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