As bitcoin prices slide even further this week analysts have been looking at the bigger picture which is growing increasingly bearish. Previous approaches to BTC halving have been bullish but the opposite appears to be developing this time around, at least according to one analyst.
BTC Slides Further
Bitcoin is in danger of falling back below $8,000 again as it takes another beating by the bears. A few hours ago prices broke down again in a plunge from $8,450 to wick down to $8,000 before the slight recovery.
BTC price 1 hour chart – tradingview.com
The price bounced back a little to settle just below $8,200 but it marks a loss of over 4% since the weekend. The down trend is clearly intensifying as Chinese FOMO fades out. Analysts are largely bearish as most are eyeing further losses in another fall to support around $8k.
A Bearish Bitcoin Halving?
There are still six months to go before the Bitcoin halving but this could be the first one that has a bearish run up. Industry analyst Willy Woo has looked at the longer time frame charts and noticed that historical halvings have always been bullish leading up to the event.
“NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event.”
NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event. pic.twitter.com/20748Zv8aQ
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2019
He added that as price drops the weaker miners will close down their rigs as was the case during the 2018 capitulation down to $3k. This year prices have dumped from just below $14k down to $7.5k which is having the same effect on the miners.
Woo added that this adds to the already bearish sentiment and doesn’t expect a huge pump before the halving in May next year.
“I expect way more volatility. Short term bearish is all I’m saying. And don’t expect price will repeat past halvenings.”
Someone else rightly noted that there has only been two other Bitcoin halvings so there isn’t a great deal of data to go on. Another point was made that this halving will be the first when BTC futures contracts are added to the mix which could intensify the bearish sentiment.
Thirdly a massive global recession appears to be looming for 2020 which would also put pressure on the likelihood of a massive bull run. There may be no major bull run for a couple of years.
Others, such as the ‘Crypto Dog’ were bullish noting that there is also a lot of competition between miners;
“$BTC miners are incentivized to keep price low to squeeze out smaller operations. The halving will catalyze a massive run, but who will be left standing when it finally comes?”
$BTC miners are incentivized to keep price low to squeeze out smaller operations.
The halving will catalyze a massive run, but who will be left standing when it finally comes?
— The Crypto Dog
(@TheCryptoDog) November 19, 2019
The next few months could see a lot of chop for Bitcoin and those expecting a huge pre-halving pump may be disappointed if the above turns out to be accurate.
Image from Shutterstock
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